Clean Orbit Newsletter: Jan. 20, 2022
NASA CONFIRMS RUSSIAN ASAT TEST DOUBLED DEBRIS RISK TO ISS, New AI navigation prevents crashes in space, Russian ASAT debris could make 'extremely dangerous rendezvous' with Chinese satellite
Routine space operations create countless pieces of space junk that pose mission-critical risks to humanity’s future in space. At this crucial time for space exploration, utilization, and development, Clean Orbit is dedicated to mitigating the risks that could jeopardize safe access to space.
NASA CONFIRMS RUSSIAN ASAT TEST DOUBLED DEBRIS RISK TO ISS
“NASA ISS Program Director Robyn Gatens told a NASA advisory committee today [Jan. 18th, 2022] that the November 15, 2021 Russian ASAT test forced the Expedition 66 crew to implement safe haven procedures, closing hatches to parts of the ISS and sheltering in the Soyuz and Crew Dragon spacecraft that could return them to Earth if worse came to worse.”
“Russia denied the test imperiled the crew, but Gatens said the threat of a piece of debris penetrating the ISS now has doubled to one chance in 25,000-33,000 orbits, versus one in 50,000 orbits prior to the test. The ISS does about 6,000 orbits a year.”
“Orbital debris is a growing threat to the sustainable use of space and kinetic-energy ASAT, or KE-ASAT, tests since 2007 by China, India, and Russia have added considerably to the population of debris in low Earth orbit. The 2008 U.S. Burnt Frost exercise also created debris although it all has reentered since then. Some consider that an ASAT test, but others insist it was a necessary action to protect the world’s populace from dangerous chemicals that could be released during an uncontrolled reentry by a malfunctioning U.S. military satellite.”
“In recent days a group led by former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Doug Loverro urged the United States to take the first step by declaring a unilateral ban, and Victoria Samson and Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation argued for a global ban in a recent issue of Scientific American.”
New AI navigation prevents crashes in space
“UC's Department of Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics is among many academic, government and industry leaders working on this problem known as On-Orbit Servicing, Assembly and Manufacturing. These innovations hold the promise of extending the lifespan of satellites, making critical repairs to telescopes or improving the feasibility of interplanetary exploration.”
“Satellites represent about one-third of the $371 billion global space economy, according to the industry analyst firm BryceTech.”
"This work is one of the hot topics right now," Kim said. "The first step is avoiding collisions while deploying multiple agents in a designated space."
“UC's system relies on a type of artificial intelligence called explainable AI. It uses fuzzy logic, a system that relies on degrees of truth rather than a binary right or wrong. The system allows engineers to understand the relationship between inputs and outputs through observed rules.”
"Artificial intelligence has been applied in many different places, but not much in aerospace engineering. That's because aerospace engineering is very conservative," Kim said.”
“But Kim said that is likely to change as technology like the collision-avoidance system he and his students are developing becomes more proven.”
Collision of Russian space debris can't be ruled out on 'extremely dangerous rendezvous' with Chinese satellite: expert
“The Space Debris Monitoring and Application Center of the China National Space Administration sent out a warning on an extremely dangerous rendezvous on Tuesday between the Tsinghua Science satellite and Russia's Cosmos 1408 debris. Experts on space debris told the Global Times on Wednesday that the data released showed that there is a high chance of collision between the debris and the satellite.”
"Currently, they keep a safe distance but the chance for these two getting close in the future cannot be excluded," Liu Jing, a space debris expert said.”
“The closest distance between Tsinghua's satellite and the Russian debris was 14.5 meters, with a relative speed of 5.27 kilometers per second. Liu told the Global Times that it is very rare to see the distance between space debris and spacecraft within just a dozen of meters, as normally during the debris-spacecraft rendezvous, the two keep a distance of several tens of kilometers.”
Satellite debris in Earth's orbit from thousands of 'zombie' spacecraft poses a growing risk to the economy – Professor Malcolm Macdonald
“Today, spacecraft support at least £360 billion a year of the UK’s GDP, providing services from precise timing and navigation, to global communications and tracking our impact on our planet. Any disruption to the space environment, or unsustainable behaviour in it, risks all this.”
“Before 2020, we had launched no fewer than 9,000 spacecraft, with around 1,500 remaining operational. By the end of 2021, there were around 3,000 operational spacecraft, with about half of them belonging to Elon Musk‘s ‘SpaceX Starlink’ broadband service.”
“By the end of the decade, we will likely see more than 45,000 operational spacecraft in orbit. As a result, we are inevitably going to see a significant growth in collisions and debris, which will impact the infrastructure and services space supports.”
“Currently we have no meaningful legislation in place to help sustain space for future generations. We rely on guidelines and best-practice, based on so-called gentlemanly conduct in a rapidly professionalising and crowded environment.”
SpaceX Launches Transporter-3 Mission
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“Companies that launched small satellites on this mission include Planet, Spire, Kepler, Capella Space, Unseenlabs, Iceye, and Umbra. Most of the companies were adding to already existing satellite constellations.”
“Most of the payloads were arranged by launch aggregators like D-Orbit, Spaceflight, and Exolaunch, which provide brokerage services for organizations seeking launch services for their small satellites.”
“And, yes, D-Orbit is best known for that time it tested a satellite reentry system that could function independently of the satellite as a way to address the issue of “dead” satellites that can in orbit for years – even decades. The concept could help avoid issues like the International Space Station having to maneuver to avoid “space junk” or China complaining about Starlink satellites almost colliding with its space station.”
“SpaceX’s dedicated rideshare missions make it possible to launch more small satellites without their owners having to wait for space on a launch of a larger payload. SpaceX is planning to launch three more Transporter missions this year. The Transporter missions provide a highly affordable way for companies and research organizations to launch small satellites.”
The Clean Orbit Team thanks our GEO Patrons: Zoena Howland and Vivian Newton for supporting our mission to keep humanity’s use of the space environment safe and sustainable. If you’d like to join our mission, consider joining our community on Patreon!
Clean Orbit advocates for proactive, sustainable solutions to the growing threat of space debris in low earth orbit. Follow our newsletter for the latest developments in Space Traffic Management (STM), Active Debris Removal (ADR), and orbital close calls.