Clean Orbit Newsletter: Jan. 5, 2022
Russian rocket parts making landfall within 24 hours, how runaway space junk could trap humanity on Earth, The UN seeks to update the rules on space militarization
Routine space operations create countless pieces of space junk that pose mission-critical risks to humanity’s future in space. At this crucial time for space exploration, utilization, and development, Clean Orbit is dedicated to mitigating the risks that could jeopardize safe access to space.
Russian rocket parts tumbling through space, could re-enter Earth's atmosphere within 24 hours
Stuff |
“Part of a Russian rocket launched in late December is tumbling through space, and could re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere, possibly over New Zealand, on Thursday morning.
The Angara A5 rocket lifted off from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia on December 28. It was the third development flight for the heavy lift rocket, which was carrying a 2.4-tonne dummy payload.”
“Astronomer Joseph Remis predicted on Wednesday that the upper stage would make an uncontrolled re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere at 6.44am on Thursday, with a range of plus or minus six hours.”
“In 2019 The Economist reported that every day 1-2 tonnes of orbiting space junk re-entered the atmosphere. While four-fifths of that junk burnt up, there were still some fragments large enough to be lethal.”
A Whopping 145 Rockets Shot Into Space In 2021, and 2022 Will Follow Suit
“2021 broke historical records for orbital space launches and space flight mission performance. While 1957 remains the year with the highest number of rocket launches, most launches then were just suborbital tests. There was undeniable progress in 1957, like the Sputnik, and the laying of the foundations for rocket science and space exploration, but the progress of 2021 goes beyond.”
“Per The Hill, there were a total of 145 launches in 2021, of which 135 were successful orbital launches. December saw the most with a staggering 20 launches; that’s 1.5 launches per day. Space activity shows no sign of slowing down in 2022, in fact, quite the opposite. There are already dozens of maiden flights scheduled. SpaceX alone has a major number of scheduled launches for next year, and when the orbital flights’ final count comes through for 2022, the record will surely be smashed. Things to keep an eye on in 2022 are Artemis, SpaceX and the Starship, the Mars rovers, the ISS, new space stations, China’s space program, NASA’s planetary missions, and the Webb Telescope.”
“Cooperation between countries, private companies, and national competition, especially between the U.S. and China, along with an increased technological capacity and a will to explore, are all driving the space race. There are drawbacks to this increased space activity. Space junk and traffic are some of the most controversial issues. The tug-of-war between China, Russia, and the U.S., the weaponizing of space, the nuclear space race, and space mining also present extreme risks.”
KESSLER SYNDROME: HOW RUNAWAY SPACE JUNK COULD TRAP HUMANS ON EARTH
Inverse |
“There are two main sources of space debris at the moment, the primary being old rocket stages still in orbit decades after the delivery of their payload. “The fuel and the oxidizer get together because the seals fail,” McDowell says, “And they go bang.”
The secondary source is military anti-satellite tests, he says, which generate debris clouds that can persist for decades.
But if a Kessler Syndrome cascade is already underway, and continues apace unmitigated, eventually the most significant source of space debris will be the pulverized remains of satellites, spacecraft, and space stations dashed upon rocks of our own making.”
“More satellites in space mean more potential collisions, which means more satellites — and space stations — making more frequent evasive maneuvers to avoid further collisions, all of which can interrupt operations and cost operators money by decreasing the lifespan of their satellites. Every Starlink satellite has a limited amount of krypton propellant onboard for maneuvering around debris and Chinese space stations, for instance, and when the tank is near empty, it’s time for that satellite’s long fiery goodbye bow in the upper atmosphere — failure to do so just increases the problem by adding another dead satellite.”
“The consequence of full bore Kessler syndrome allowed to run its course would be to negate the sci-fi ambitions of people like Elon Musk. To proscribe humans from the cosmos and limit our future to that of a one-planet species for many lifetimes — physically and intellectually. The space debris could ruin ground-based astronomy, too, hemming in our minds as well as our rockets.”
It’s getting awfully crowded up in the low-Earth orbit area (Audio)
“Recently, astronauts on the ISS had to take shelter after a Russian anti-satellite weapon test created a dangerous cloud of space debris. Naturally, the US government is deeply concerned about the risk posed by space debris, this year's NDAA even includes a directive to identify efforts to advance alternatives to Hall thrusters. So what’s wrong with Hall thrusters? Well to find out, I spoke to Dr. Natalya Bailey, founder and chief strategy officer for Accion Systems.”
“People tend to like electric [propulsion] when they’re in space because it’s extremely efficient in terms of propellant usage, anywhere from 10 to 1,000 times more efficient than using a chemical system.”
“But, the status quo has been electric propulsion systems that still need to be stored at really high pressures, on the order of 200 to 600 atmospheres, and you end up with the equivalent of about a kilogram of TNT just in that stored pressure…”
“We’ve heard from some folks that were scoping out a legacy system, a Hall thruster, for use on their constellation… and were studying the resulting debris. If the satellites got hit and the tank exploded, that would set off a chain reaction that would actually destroy their whole constellation.”
“We’ve run our own simulations, and we’re pretty certain that you can destroy your own constellation if you have these pressurized tanks on board. And each ASAT test can create 10,000+ pieces of debris— every one of those increases the likelihood of setting off a chain reaction, and pretty soon low earth orbit becomes unusable.”
-Dr. Natalya Bailey
The rules of space haven't been updated in 50 years, and the UN says it's time
CNN |
“On November 15, 2021, Russia destroyed one of its own old satellites using a missile launched from the surface of Earth, creating a massive debris cloud that threatens many space assets, including astronauts onboard the International Space Station.
This happened only two weeks after the United Nations General Assembly First Committee formally recognized the vital role that space and space assets play in international efforts to better the human experience -- and the risks military activities in space pose to those goals.”
“The goals of the group are to assess current and future threats to space operations, determine when behavior may be considered irresponsible, "make recommendations on possible norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviors," and "contribute to the negotiation of legally binding instruments" -- including a treaty to prevent "an arms race in space."
“With increasing commercialization, the lines between military and civilian uses of space are less blurry. Most people are able to identify terrestrial benefits of satellites like weather forecasts, climate monitoring and internet connectivity but are unaware that they also increase agricultural yields and monitor human rights violations.
The rush to develop a new space economy based on activities in and around Earth and the moon suggests that humanity's economic dependence on space will only increase.”
INNOspace Masters 2022 is looking for sustainable and efficient innovations for space and earth (Sponsored)
“Welcoming both spin-in (into space from other industries) and spin-off (adding value to terrestrial industries through space applications) ideas, there are prizes up for grabs in five themed challenges. The winners of each challenge will receive tailored prizes worth up to €400k per winner – enabling them to implement their ideas and gain access to a network of internationally renowned experts.”
“The focus of the upcoming edition centres around sustainable and efficient innovations for space and our planet. While sustainability and efficiency aren’t necessarily the first terms that come to mind when thinking about space and satellites, satellite systems in the earth observation, navigation and communication sector have become crucial for our modern society and help us foster sustainable development back on Earth. Satellites hold incredible quantities of data that if lost or impacted in some way can massively impact emergency response services, security agents and other institutions on Earth in addition to a host of other ramifications. We therefore desperately need to keep innovating in this sector to ensure that our vital systems on earth run smoothly.”
“Achieving sustainability for our earth and space in this way can be looked at through different lenses. One such lens is that we need to set up special security measures to prevent harmful hacker attacks on satellites by malicious agents to protect our data. But it also means that new ways need to be found to protect the satellites themselves, as they are increasingly endangered by a growing flock of space debris in orbit. It could also entail looking for solutions to restore damaged or obsolete satellites, instead of losing them entirely – improving their longevity.”
The Clean Orbit Team thanks our GEO Patrons: Zoena Howland and Vivian Newton for supporting our mission to keep humanity’s use of the space environment safe and sustainable. If you’d like to join our mission, consider joining our community on Patreon!
Clean Orbit advocates for proactive, sustainable solutions to the growing threat of space debris in low earth orbit. Follow our newsletter for the latest developments in Space Traffic Management (STM), Active Debris Removal (ADR), and orbital close calls.